WestJet Airlines (WJA-T)- WestJet is the best-in-class
airline in Canada. Their balance sheet is exceptional for any company, much
less an airline. They have a long term debt to equity of .42 and 1.45 billion
in cash. That's almost half the market cap in cash. The nature of the airline industry is very cyclical so I would be
cautious at these levels, but we can learn a lot from WestJet about how a
best-in-class company almost always outperforms. Their main competition, Air
Canada, is bogged down in legacy and pension costs, hampering their ability to effectively
compete. WestJet continues to execute on their strategy of being an efficient
and well-run company. Airlines are generally shunned by investors, but the
numbers don’t lie with WestJet. Personally, I wouldn't think twice to buy on
any type of pull back even at these extended levels, but you’ll want to keep a
close eye on earnings calls for any cyclical slowdowns.
Cineplex (CGX-T)- Cineplex has a dominate position in movie theaters essentially a monopoly. Their only competition is from Empire Company
who also operates a small chain of movie theatres. Movies are ingrained in our society, and I still believe Cineplex will thrive even with the internet and downloading
movies becoming more prominent. Cineplex makes most of their money on high
markup confectionery items, which hints at a pricing advantage. With the lack of
significant competition and a proven management team, I expect Cineplex to
continue to outperform the broader index over time.
Melcor Developments (MRD-T)- There have been several
negative headlines the last 6 months regarding the housing industry in Canada.
As a result, the valuation of Melcor Developments has been depressed, still
trading at 5.5 times earnings and .92 book value. Considering the recent company
performance, which has been great, there is a clear disconnect between the valuation
and the performance of the business. I think Melcor will be a great pick for
2013 because it should appreciate by a combination of multiple expansion and
earnings performance. They recently announced plans to unlock value by spinning
off some assets into a REIT – the result is a more focused community developer
with more capital. I’m willing to bet housing is in a correction, not a free
fall, and Melcor is the cheapest way to play with still some room for serious growth
long term.
Computer Modelling Group (CMG-T)- CMG occupies a terrific
niche in oil services technology; they make reservoir simulation software for
the oil and gas industry. They have a tremendous record of un-interrupted double
digit earnings growth over the last 10 years, usually growing over 20% a year. Over
the long term, they have rewarded their shareholders handsomely with a
combination of dividend growth, special dividends and capital appreciation.
They have a world class balance sheet with no long term debt and lots of cash.
A decent argument can be made that CMG is expensive, trading at 28 times
forward earnings, but I believe it’s worth the premium. There is almost no
other company that has consistently performed better over the long term than
CMG, yet it still remains under followed and underappreciated.