Passive, long term investing is the most rational approach
to buying stocks for the retail investor because you save so much on fees. You
also benefit mentally from a low maintenance portfolio management style that
doesn’t require a lot of time inputting orders every day. As a long term
investor, most of your time should be spent hunting around index listings for
more phenomenal companies and doing research on Sedar.com.
The best buy and hold stocks have 3 fundamental
characteristics that make them ideal for the long term investor.
1. Consistency of Earnings- When purchasing stocks to buy
and hold for long periods of time, consistency of profits is an important thing
to consider. If the business is making money one quarter and losing money the
next, there should be no attempt to buy and hold. Consistency of earnings is a
sign of stability and quality in the business. Usually these companies pay and
grow their dividend over time. A good way to measure consistency of earnings is
look at the income statement during the last few recessions. Did net income
tumble dramatically from pre-recession levels? If net income was the same or
kept growing during the recession, you may have found a good buy and hold stock
candidate.
2. Room for Growth- Companies must have a clear plan for
growth and operate in a big enough market to execute that growth over the long
term. Pay close attention to market capitalization; a fantastic 300 million
dollar corporation is probably more likely to outperform over the long term then
a fantastic 50 billion dollar corporation. That’s not to say that a large
company can’t be a terrific investment - just look at Warren Buffett’s Coca
Cola investment. He bought in the late 80s when the whole company was worth
about 10 billion, now the company is worth over 170 billion. Paying close
attention to market capitalization helps you to know what to expect from a
stock. For example, I don’t buy Colgate Palmolive expecting it to be a 5-bagger
over the next 10 years. Because it is so big and sells into mature markets, you
expect Colgate to give you slow and steady performance in good and bad markets,
not explosive growth.
3. Special Intrinsic Characteristics- Intrinsic value is a
well-known idea among value investors but it’s hard to identify and define. There is
not one simple formula that defines intrinsic value; it is instead a combination
of several special characteristics that ultimately produces intrinsic value
within a business. These characteristics include a monopoly, a niche market, a
unique business model, pricing power, brand power, reoccurring revenues,
special management. Many times a company will have 2 or 3 of these
characteristics making them more special than your average stock and usually
worth a buy. These characteristics are all part of the ‘financial moat’ that
all fantastic businesses have. Searching for intrinsic value in names that are
relatively underfollowed can be very rewarding for the long term investor.
Getting in before the big institutional money is why I am a fan of
underappreciated and under followed small cap stocks.
If you can find special stocks with an intrinsic value, that
have steady earnings and room for growth, then these are the best stocks to buy
and hold for an indefinite period. This is summed up by Buffett in another of
his quotes, “Time is the friend of the wonderful business, but time is the
enemy of a terrible business.” When you buy wonderful businesses with a
financial moat and room for growth, time is on your side.
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ReplyDeleteSome great advice! The hard part is finding these businesses before they become stalwarts. What was the name of that perfect stock again 'Cajun Cleansers'??
ReplyDeleteOn the weekend, I was using Globe Investor to find some value growth stocks. I always skip engineering, construction and land development companies, thinking my job is more than enough exposure to that sector. But I've been reading "One up on Wall Street" again and Lynch talks about how we should look for companies in the industry we are most familiar. For shits and giggles I clicked on a name I’ve skipped numerous times in the past – Melcor Developments.
- P/E is 5.8, and P/E(ttm) is 4.8 – historically the average P/E is 9.0
- EPS 3.5 times higher in 2011 than 2009 and the first two quarters are up sharply
- Trading 0.8 less than tangible book value
- Recently increased its dividend
At work, we haven’t been this busy since 2007 when the industry was going gang busters.
I haven’t been this impressed by a stock since discovering Stella Jones.
So I ended up starting a position in MRD. Sold some of my boring large cap holdings (ARX, SAP). Thanks for the pick. :) MRD was almost exactly the type of stock I envisioned buying because of booming Alberta.
DeleteI bought some on Monday. Looking forward to strong earnings next quarter and a dividend increase.
DeleteWow, I just had a look at their last few quarters and it looks great. I live in Calgary now and I can feel that its booming and I was wondering what type of housing plays there are on the TSX (non reit), if any. This is one of the reasons I like CWA. I've come across Melcor but never gave it a fair chance. Damn I kinda wanna start a position. LOL
ReplyDeleteI know of Genesis Land Development (GDC), a Calgary land developer, but the P/E is higher and it doesn't pay a dividend. Debt to equity is 0.31 and is trading 0.63x book value. I think the sector is ignored by Bay Street and under valued.
ReplyDeleteRichelieu Hardware (RCH) is an importer, distributor and manufacturer of specialty hardware and related products.
RCH is a client at my work, always liked the stock too. Never heard of GDC, added it to my watchlist. :)
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