Sunday, September 9, 2012

How To Buy and Hold The Right Stocks

I am a big proponent of passive, buy and hold investing. One of the best quotes that sums up my approach to passive investing is from Warren Buffett, “Wall Street makes money on activity; you make your money off of inactivity.” It makes sense – Wall Street wouldn’t want people to stop trading, they would lose out on their fees and commissions. The investor that makes 20 orders a year is essentially worthless to a broker, as opposed to the trader who makes over 1000 orders a year. No wonder these online brokers always advertise ‘open your ‘trading’ account’, it’s never ‘open your long term passive investing account.’ They make loads of money off of retail investor in this way.

Passive, long term investing is the most rational approach to buying stocks for the retail investor because you save so much on fees. You also benefit mentally from a low maintenance portfolio management style that doesn’t require a lot of time inputting orders every day. As a long term investor, most of your time should be spent hunting around index listings for more phenomenal companies and doing research on Sedar.com.

The best buy and hold stocks have 3 fundamental characteristics that make them ideal for the long term investor.

1. Consistency of Earnings- When purchasing stocks to buy and hold for long periods of time, consistency of profits is an important thing to consider. If the business is making money one quarter and losing money the next, there should be no attempt to buy and hold. Consistency of earnings is a sign of stability and quality in the business. Usually these companies pay and grow their dividend over time. A good way to measure consistency of earnings is look at the income statement during the last few recessions. Did net income tumble dramatically from pre-recession levels? If net income was the same or kept growing during the recession, you may have found a good buy and hold stock candidate.

2. Room for Growth- Companies must have a clear plan for growth and operate in a big enough market to execute that growth over the long term. Pay close attention to market capitalization; a fantastic 300 million dollar corporation is probably more likely to outperform over the long term then a fantastic 50 billion dollar corporation. That’s not to say that a large company can’t be a terrific investment - just look at Warren Buffett’s Coca Cola investment. He bought in the late 80s when the whole company was worth about 10 billion, now the company is worth over 170 billion. Paying close attention to market capitalization helps you to know what to expect from a stock. For example, I don’t buy Colgate Palmolive expecting it to be a 5-bagger over the next 10 years. Because it is so big and sells into mature markets, you expect Colgate to give you slow and steady performance in good and bad markets, not explosive growth.

3. Special Intrinsic Characteristics- Intrinsic value is a well-known idea among value investors but it’s hard to identify and define. There is not one simple formula that defines intrinsic value; it is instead a combination of several special characteristics that ultimately produces intrinsic value within a business. These characteristics include a monopoly, a niche market, a unique business model, pricing power, brand power, reoccurring revenues, special management. Many times a company will have 2 or 3 of these characteristics making them more special than your average stock and usually worth a buy. These characteristics are all part of the ‘financial moat’ that all fantastic businesses have. Searching for intrinsic value in names that are relatively underfollowed can be very rewarding for the long term investor. Getting in before the big institutional money is why I am a fan of underappreciated and under followed small cap stocks.

If you can find special stocks with an intrinsic value, that have steady earnings and room for growth, then these are the best stocks to buy and hold for an indefinite period. This is summed up by Buffett in another of his quotes, “Time is the friend of the wonderful business, but time is the enemy of a terrible business.” When you buy wonderful businesses with a financial moat and room for growth, time is on your side.

7 comments:

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  2. Some great advice! The hard part is finding these businesses before they become stalwarts. What was the name of that perfect stock again 'Cajun Cleansers'??

    On the weekend, I was using Globe Investor to find some value growth stocks. I always skip engineering, construction and land development companies, thinking my job is more than enough exposure to that sector. But I've been reading "One up on Wall Street" again and Lynch talks about how we should look for companies in the industry we are most familiar. For shits and giggles I clicked on a name I’ve skipped numerous times in the past – Melcor Developments.

    - P/E is 5.8, and P/E(ttm) is 4.8 – historically the average P/E is 9.0
    - EPS 3.5 times higher in 2011 than 2009 and the first two quarters are up sharply
    - Trading 0.8 less than tangible book value
    - Recently increased its dividend

    At work, we haven’t been this busy since 2007 when the industry was going gang busters.

    I haven’t been this impressed by a stock since discovering Stella Jones.

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    1. So I ended up starting a position in MRD. Sold some of my boring large cap holdings (ARX, SAP). Thanks for the pick. :) MRD was almost exactly the type of stock I envisioned buying because of booming Alberta.

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    2. I bought some on Monday. Looking forward to strong earnings next quarter and a dividend increase.

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  3. Wow, I just had a look at their last few quarters and it looks great. I live in Calgary now and I can feel that its booming and I was wondering what type of housing plays there are on the TSX (non reit), if any. This is one of the reasons I like CWA. I've come across Melcor but never gave it a fair chance. Damn I kinda wanna start a position. LOL

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  4. I know of Genesis Land Development (GDC), a Calgary land developer, but the P/E is higher and it doesn't pay a dividend. Debt to equity is 0.31 and is trading 0.63x book value. I think the sector is ignored by Bay Street and under valued.

    Richelieu Hardware (RCH) is an importer, distributor and manufacturer of specialty hardware and related products.

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    1. RCH is a client at my work, always liked the stock too. Never heard of GDC, added it to my watchlist. :)

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